Asia and Oceania

Politically, the region has demonstrated resilience in the face of multiple crises but remains deeply divided, with twelve autocracies and ten democracies. Authoritarian hardening in Afghanistan, Cambodia, Myanmar and Pakistan contrasts with moderate democratic progress in Malaysia and Sri Lanka. In Indonesia, former President Jokowi’s resort to dynastic politics and constitutional manipulation has marked a shift from democracy toward increasingly authoritarian rule. In Bangladesh, a student uprising violently suppressed in 2024 led to the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian regime and initiated a democratic transition under an interim government. South Korea, under the now-impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol, faced a democracy-threatening crisis following a brief state of emergency, yet – alongside Taiwan, which continues to face severe external pressure – demonstrated remarkable democratic resilience.

Economically, the region has largely recovered from the years of crisis, but growing inequalities and the selective expansion of social protection systems reveal the uneven nature of this recovery. Many states remain highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, mounting debt burdens and the ongoing reconfiguration of global supply chains. India, Vietnam and Bangladesh rank among the most dynamic growth economies, while others stagnate. This increasing divergence in growth trajectories – which cannot be explained by geography or resource endowments alone – underscores the interdependence of political and economic transformation. Notable exceptions include Singapore, China and Thailand, which maintain comparatively strong economic performance despite entrenched authoritarian structures.

Governance performance also varies widely. Taiwan, South Korea, Bhutan and Timor-Leste stand out for their high steering capacity and effective policy implementation. In contrast, Myanmar and North Korea exhibit weak governance, and Afghanistan has now reached a state of outright governance failure. Bangladesh, along with Laos, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, recorded significant improvements in governance effectiveness but remains politically fragile.